United Football League (UFL) Debuts League Game Ball

Week 3 UFL Betting Preview

Another week, another data point. The Brahmas benefitted from some comeback Karma, DC flaunted its home field advantage, St. Louis found themselves on the right side of a field goal, and Birmingham showed the league that are not going anywhere with another dominant performance.

San Antonio Brahmas vs Memphis Showboats

How did Memphis not secure this game? Let’s dive into some key metrics to see where they stumbled. While their offensive line showed improvement from last week, they still allowed pressure on 12 of 41 dropbacks. Memphis leads the UFL in both dropbacks and pressures faced. What’s intriguing is that they held substantial leads against both Houston and San Antonio. Refusing to run the ball while leading might have cost them the game. Memphis’s defense deserves credit, shutting down the Brahmas for most of the game. Unlike DC in Week 1, Memphis managed to cover the Brahma receivers effectively. Garbers had to hold onto the ball longer due to this coverage, taking 2.4 seconds before release compared to 2.03 seconds last week. Going forward, the Brahmas’ offense likely sits somewhere between their elite Week 1 form and their lackluster Week 2 performance.

Arlington Renegades vs St. Louis Battlehawks

The weekend’s best game saw a shootout between arguably the two most accomplished quarterbacks in Spring Football (who also happen to be the highest-graded QBs). McCarron got the vertical passing game rolling with a 9.8-yard Average Depth of Target (ADOT), up from a 6.7 ADOT in Week 1. The running game also made an impact with 6.1 yards per carry. Arlington managed to stretch the field with Perez testing defenses deep. Unfortunately, they struggled to establish a running game. Arlington’s defense let them down again; despite decent pressure on McCarron, they couldn’t contain the receivers downfield. With a coverage grade of just 47.8 out of 100, Arlington needs defensive adjustments.

Birmingham Stallions vs Michigan Panthers

The scoreline doesn’t reflect the game’s one-sided nature. Aside from one explosive play (which any good analytics system will downweight), Michigan struggled. EJ Perry remains the lowest-graded QB in the league, but it’s not all on him; his pass protection isn’t helping. Perry faced pressure on 16 of 39 dropbacks and was sacked seven times. He has the highest sack percentage from pressure among UFL QBs. Translation: his mobility isn’t helping him escape pressure. Expect Michigan to give other QBs a shot in upcoming weeks. Birmingham boasts the best pass rush and the most efficient offense so far. However, deeper analysis shows inconsistencies. Birmingham struggled in the red zone against Michigan, and their passing game lacks a true #1 receiver. They’re a good offense, not elite—yet.

Houston Roughnecks vs DC Defenders

Houston might have found their quarterback in Sinnett, who outperformed Guarantano. With Sinnett, Houston attempted throws nearly twice as far downfield (9 vs. 5.4 ADOT). However, pass protection remains a concern; despite a 2.15-second release time, Houston faced pressure on 15 of 39 dropbacks. DC did a commendable job covering Houston’s offensive threats. Offensively, DC is struggling to replicate last year’s passing game success managing only 5.7 Yards per pass attempt vs 8.2 Yards last year.  Their rushing game has plummeted without Abram Smith. Despite looking strong on paper, DC has glaring issues after two games.

Power Rankings

  1. Birmingham – Best but not flawless.
  2. St. Louis – Likely the UFL’s top offense.
  3. San Antonio – Will the real Brahma Offense please stand up?
  4. DC – Stacked roster but shaky blocking.
  5. Memphis – A well-rounded team flying under the radar.
  6. Arlington – How many shootouts can they win this year?
  7. Michigan – Offensive changes needed.
  8. Houston – Time to scout Free Agent offensive linemen.

Projections

These projections combine depth charts, play-by-play data, and coaching tendencies.

  • DC by 1, total of 46 points
  • Birmingham by 4, total of 40.5 points
  • Michigan by 1, total of 40 points
  • St. Louis by 2.5, total of 40.5 points

Which UFL matchups are you looking forward to this weekend? Let us know down in the comments below or join the conversation on Discord.