UFL Best Bets Week Six | Chris Garrett

UFL Week Six: Jared Shuster’s Best Bets

This season’s record: 9-6

Week 6 Picks:
Stallions -11
Battlehawks -12.5
Panthers -4

Week five of the UFL is in the books and we have officially hit the halfway point of the regular season. This past weekend brought us more great action, but the scores were more lopsided than we’ve seen previously. The Stallions (5-0) and Battlehawks (4-1) both won in blowouts against conference opponents. The Panthers (3-2) and Brahmas (4-1) each won by double-digits as well, creating more separation between the current playoff teams and the bottom four. We have a few huge spreads this week indicating that we could be in for a couple more blowouts in week six. Let’s look at this week’s best bets.

Birmingham Stallions (-11) @ Memphis Showboats

The Stallions head into Memphis on Saturday to face off against the Showboats (1-4) in the second matchup of these two teams. In week three, Birmingham came out on top 33-14 and quarterback Adrian Martinez had 378 total yards. We don’t know yet who will start this week at quarterback, either Martinez or Matt Corral. The way head coach Skip Holtz has rotated the two this year tells us that we may see Corral, despite how well Martinez has played. This is a very big spread to cover, but I think Birmingham will. Just to note, the Stallions have gone 3-0 against Memphis dating back to last season, outscoring them 102-36.

In the first matchup of these two teams this year, Memphis surrendered eight sacks and was dominated in the trenches. Not much has changed in the two games that have passed, aside from Showboats’ quarterback Case Cookus being injured. Troy Williams started last week in place of Cookus and was solid. However, regardless of who starts against the Stallions, the offensive line remains the same and they’ve struggled badly, giving up 25 sacks on the season. That’s the worst mark in the league by a wide margin. On the other side of the ball, Memphis is giving up a league-high 25.2 points per game. The Stallions’ offense is averaging 26.4 points per game and leads the league in yards per game. Memphis has been struggling and this is an extremely tough matchup for them. I expect a result very much like week three.

Houston Roughnecks @ St. Louis Battlehawks (-12.5)

It doesn’t feel right taking two double digit favorites to start week six on Saturday, but all the stats show that the Battlehawks will win big at home. To start, St. Louis has the best home field advantage in the league and plays better at home. They’re coming off a dominant win in Audi Field, the first loss DC has suffered at home and the Battlehawks looked the best they have all year. They lead the league in scoring, yards allowed, passing yards allowed, and turnover differential. Not only that, but they have the best group of receiving weapons in the UFL with the MVP-front runner at quarterback, AJ McCarron.

Houston on the other hand is coming off a brutal loss to the Stallions. Their same struggles continued, and the league’s worst run team still couldn’t run the ball. They’re also last in scoring and turnover differential, going against a high-powered offense in a hostile environment. I don’t expect the Roughnecks’ offense to be able to keep up with the Battlehawks. I think St. Louis will score 30-plus, and Houston hasn’t scored more than 20 in a game this season. Somewhere around 32-13 sounds about right.

Arlington Renegades @ Michigan Panthers (-4)

The Arlington Renegades are still looking for their first win and they’ll head into Michigan to face the Panthers at Ford Field on Sunday. Taking the favorite in all three of my picks this week feels wrong, but I’m going with my gut. The Renegades’ run game has been bad all year and they’ll be facing the second best rush defense in the league, only giving up 71.4 yards per game. That will likely lead to Arlington becoming one-dimensional. I think they’ll have some success through the air, but Michigan has been stingy in the red zone, only allowing touchdowns on 43% of opponents’ trips. Arlington will likely be settling for field goals more than they want.

For Michigan, Danny Etling filled in nicely for EJ Perry at quarterback and the Panthers scored a season-high 35 points last week. They also scored 34 in week three but have combined for a total of 40 points in their other three contests. The Renegade defense has been bad all year and with Michigan sporting a better roster overall, I think they have the advantage on both sides of the ball. This game will come down to Etling and his offensive line. If both play at a solid level and don’t lose the game for the Panthers, they should cover the spread easily.

What are your thoughts on these UFL Best Bets from Jared this week? Let us know down in the comments below, or join the conversation on Discord!